Trends in incidence and prevalence of patients living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer: a retrospective cohort study
Menée à partir des données 2000-2021 du registre néerlandais des cancers portant sur 18 466 patients (âge moyen : 64 ans), cette étude de cohorte rétrospective analyse l'incidence et la prévalence des cancers métastatiques de novo incurables
Background: Therapeutic advances have improved the survival of incurable cancer patients, creating a growing population living long-term with incurable cancer. However, little is known about their epidemiological characteristics. We aimed to examine trends in annual incidence and prevalence among patients living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer in the Netherlands and to describe additional relevant sociodemographic and clinical characteristics among patients diagnosed in recent years.
Methods: A population-based, retrospective cohort study using data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry was performed. Adults (≥18 years) diagnosed with de novo metastatic solid tumors in 2000–2021 who survived ≥2 years after their diagnosis were included. Annual incidence, prevalence, key demographic, and tumor characteristics were calculated.
Results: Annual incident cases of patients living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer increased from 1298 (2000) to 5398 (2021), representing 12.0–22.6% of incurable cancer diagnoses. In February 2024, at least 18,466 patients in the Netherlands were living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer (1 per 1000 inhabitants). Mean age was 64 years (SD 12), 59.4% were male, and 55.8% (n = 10,310) were alive 2- < 5 years after diagnosis, 31.0% (n = 5721) 5- < 10 years, and 13.2% (n = 2435) ≥ 10 years. The most common tumor types were prostate (35.6%), lung (20.2%), breast (14.4%), and colorectal cancer (6.3%).
Conclusion: Substantial increases in the incidence and prevalence were identified, reflecting a shift toward prolonged survival within the incurable cancer population. Greater awareness and research are needed to inform care for this emerging group.
British Journal of Cancer , résumé, 2026