Long-term exposure to outdoor air pollutants and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large prospective U.S.-based cohort
Menée à l'aide de données portant sur 486 431 personnes, cette étude analyse l'association entre une exposition à la pollution atmosphérique extérieure, notamment aux PM2.5 et au NO2, et le risque de cancer du pancréas (4 999 cas)
Background: Outdoor air pollutants have been inconsistently associated with pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality.
Objective: We investigated associations between outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and pancreatic cancer risk.
Methods: We estimated historical pollutant concentrations at enrollment (1995–1996) residences in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study (N = 486,431). We estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR [CI]) for associations (continuous and categorical) with incident pancreatic cancer overall (N = 4999) and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAC; N = 4708) in models adjusted for lifestyle and sociodemographic factors.
Results: We observed small, non-significant associations with pancreatic cancer overall (PM2.5 HRper = 1.03[0.99–1.08]; NO2 HRper 10 ppb = 1.02[0.99–1.06]) and with PDAC (1.03[0.98–1.08]; 1.02[0.98–1.06], respectively). We found no exposure-response across categories (p-trend > 0.05). The PM2.5 association was apparent only among participants aged 55–64 years at enrollment (p-interaction = 0.04).
Significance: Marginal associations between PM2.5 and NO2 and pancreatic cancer risk are consistent with a small number of prior studies.
Impact: This study builds on a small prior literature of associations between air pollution and pancreatic cancer risk. Our analyses in a large U.S.-based cohort revealed small, positive, but non-statistically significant associations between PM2.5 and NO2 and incident pancreatic cancer, and some heterogeneity was suggested by age. Future research incorporating enhanced exposure assessment across more demographically and geographically diverse populations may help to further elucidate these associations.
Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology , article en libre accès, 2026