Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2026
Menée au Canada à partir des données 2021 des registres des cancers, cette étude estime, pour l'année 2026, l'incidence des cancers et la mortalité spécifique
Background: Cancer is the leading cause of death and has major health and economic impacts on people in Canada. We sought to provide updated estimates of cancer incidence and mortality to highlight progress and areas of need for planning and awareness.
Methods: We estimated cases, deaths, and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) in 2026, standardized to the 2021 Canadian standard population, by sex and province or territory. We used data from the Canadian Cancer Registry (until 2022) and the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database (until 2023). We modelled incidence and mortality with the canproj projection package.
Results: In Canada, an estimated 254 100 people will be diagnosed with cancer and 87 900 will die from cancer in 2026. Overall, the ASIR (591.4 per 100 000) and the ASMR (200.0 per 100 000) are projected to decrease from previous years. Lung, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers are projected to account for 47% of all new cases. The ASIR for all cancers combined is anticipated to be 16% higher among males than females (642.2 v. 553.9 per 100 000), and the ASMR 36% higher (235.8 v. 172.8 per 100 000). Notable findings in cancer-specific rates by sex were observed.
Interpretation: Age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality rates are projected to decline in Canada; however, the numbers of new cases and deaths are expected to remain at high levels, given the growing and aging population, with differential impacts expected by sex. These findings suggest that continued investment and diligence are needed to continue the major progress in cancer control in the face of changing population demographics.
Cancer surveillance reports focus on specific rates and population estimates, but these cannot capture the large impact that cancer has on Canadian society. Estimates from the Canadian Cancer Statistics Advisory Committee suggest that 42% of all people in Canada will receive a cancer diagnosis in their lifetime.1 The population of Canada grew by about 9.5% between 2020 and 2025, primarily because of immigration, and continues to age, with a record percentage (19.5%) of people aged 65 years or older in 2025.2 An aging and growing population has resulted in a greater number of people diagnosed with or dying from cancer year after year, and a major economic impact on society. A 2024 report from the Canadian Cancer Statistics Advisory Committee estimated that the total societal cost was $37.7 billion, with as much as 20% of costs falling on patients and caregivers.3
Given the considerable health, social, and economic impacts of cancer in Canada, awareness of up-to-date estimates of cancer incidence and mortality is essential for service planning. The collection of detailed, high-quality, population-level cancer data can lag by several years, given the time required to register a cancer diagnosis accurately and validate the data. To mitigate this delay, short-term projections — estimated by extrapolating previous trends into the future using statistical models — can be employed. Such projections provide a snapshot of the impact of cancer in Canada to frame where progress has been made and where additional efforts are needed.
The Canadian Cancer Statistics 2025 report provided detailed estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Canada by sex assigned at birth, age, and province or territory, as well as time trends for 23 cancer types, up to reference year 2025.1 We sought to provide updated projections of the age-standardized rates and counts of new cancer cases and deaths expected in 2026, by sex and province or territory for all ages combined.
Canadian Medical Association Journal , article en libre accès, 2026