The impact of human papillomavirus vaccination implementation in reducing cervical cancer in a heterosexual population
Menée à partir de données polonaises, cette étude identifie des facteurs de réussite concernant l'élimination du papillomavirus humain (HPV) et du cancer du col de l'utérus (inclusion des garçons dans les programmes de vaccination contre le HPV, couverture vaccinale accrue)
Human papillomavirus remains a leading cause of cervical cancer globally, particularly affecting women in low- and middle-income countries. A gender-stratified deterministic compartmental model is formulated to assess the impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer dynamics in a heterosexual population. The model stratifies individuals into vaccinated, exposed, infectious, cancer, treated, and recovered compartments, and simulations are conducted using epidemiological data from Poland. Results show that the basic reproduction number is greater than one under current epidemiological HPV vaccination policy, resulting in persistent transmission, but reduces below unity when male vaccination coverage is included and expanded. The disease-free equilibrium becomes stable under these enhanced coverage levels, and a forward bifurcation is observed, confirming that elimination can be achieved without complex threshold behavior. Sensitivity analysis identifies transmission rates, vaccine efficacy, and male vaccination rates as the parameters most strongly influencing HPV spread. The findings demonstrate that including males in national HPV immunization programs substantially enhances the reduction of secondary infections and accelerates progress toward disease elimination.
Cancer Causes & Control , résumé, 2026