Modelled impact of a multi-cancer early detection screening programme on the demand for diagnostics in England
Menée en Angleterre à l'aide d'une modélisation, cette étude estime l'évolution de la demande d'examens diagnostiques après l'introduction de tests de détection multicancers dans les programmes de dépistage
Background : People with a cancer signal detected via multi-cancer early detection (MCED) screening need timely access to confirmatory diagnostic testing. We estimated the likely change in demand for diagnostic testing in England if MCED screening were introduced.
Methods : Diagnostic demand was modelled based on (1) estimates of the volume of people aged 50–79 years who would be referred for diagnostic investigation following a ‘cancer signal detected’ result after MCED screening and (2) MCED test performance metrics. Predicted usage was compared with current annual usage using routine NHS datasets.
Results : In an established MCED screening programme, assuming 70% of the total eligible population is screened annually (~13 million), the relative change in diagnostic demand was greatest for colonoscopy (+2.09%; +13,730 each year); the greatest absolute change was for computed tomography (CT; +0.76%; +62,320). This equates to +1040 colonoscopies and +4720 CT scans for every million screened.
Conclusions : The predicted relative increase in diagnostic testing generated by MCED screening is small, though a large eligible population and maximum uptake could translate into a large number of procedures. Cancer diagnoses brought forward in time through screening should reduce diagnostic use for symptomatic presentations in the future.
British Journal of Cancer , article en libre accès, 2026