Cervical cancer incidence rates by birth cohort against the backdrop of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United States
Menée à l'aide d'une modélisation et de données statistiques sur le cancer, cette étude analyse les taux d'incidence du cancer du col de l'utérus par cohorte de naissance (1917-2001) aux États-Unis
Previous cervical cancer incidence trend analyses primarily used period-based approaches, limiting assessment of generational risk shifts against the backdrop of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Using U.S. Cancer Statistics data and age-period-cohort modeling, we estimated fitted incidence rates at ages 30-31 across birth cohorts (1917-1919 to 1999-2001), adjusted for period deviation. Incidence rates decreased by 1.9% per birth year (95%CI, -1.8% to -2.1%) up to 1951-1953 cohorts, then decelerated to 0.3% annually (95%CI, -0.4% to -0.2%). Starting with 1987-1989 cohort, incidence rates dropped sharply by 10.5% annually (95%CI, -12.7% to -8.4%). Compared with 1970-1979 cohorts, 1990-1999 cohorts had a 54% lower incidence rate (10.2 vs 4.7 per 100,000; rate ratio = 0.46; 95%CI, 0.42 to 0.50). The markedly lower risk among post-1987-1989 cohorts suggests a future reduction in population-level burden as these cohorts age. The finding also has implications for reinforcing HPV vaccination efforts and informing discussions on raising the screening initiation age.
Journal of the National Cancer Institute , résumé, 2026