Global cancer burden: progress, projections, and challenges
Menée dans 204 pays et territoires, cette étude analyse, sur la période 1990-2023, l'évolution de l'incidence des cancers (47 types), des années de vies perdues, des années de vies perdues ajustées sur l'incapacité et de la mortalité spécifique puis présente des estimations jusqu'en 2050 par facteur de risque
Estimates of cancer burden and comprehensive analyses of cancer trends, risk factors, and future projections are important for effective policy and planning. In The Lancet, the GBD 2023 Cancer Collaborators report the cancer burden for 47 cancer types and groups in 204 countries and territories in 1990–2023 with projections to 2050.1 The most recent data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 were used to estimate outcomes including cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural and other risk factors.1 Results by age and sex were presented globally, nationally, and by four groups of countries based on the World Bank income groups. The authors estimated that globally there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 16·4–20·7) new cancer diagnoses (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 10·4 million (9·6 to 10·9) cancer deaths in 2023, contributing to a total of 271 million (255–285) DALYs with 97% of these being due to YLLs. Breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer in 2023, followed by tracheal, bronchus, and lung, colorectal, prostate, and stomach cancers. Cancer of the trachea, bronchus, and lung was the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal, stomach, breast, and oesophageal cancers. The findings highlight that 41·7% (37·8–45·4) of cancer deaths were attributable to known risk factors. The numbers of cancer diagnoses and deaths were projected to rise substantially from 2024 to 2050, by 60·7% (41·9–80·6) and 74·5% (50·1–104·2), respectively. This will result in an estimated 30·5 million (22·9–38·9) new cancer diagnoses and 18·6 million (15·6–21·5) deaths by 2050.1 These results underline the urgent global public health challenges posed by this forthcoming cancer burden.
The Lancet , commentaire, 2025