Beyond Women's Health: Long-Term HPV-related Cancer Trends in Norway
Menée à l'aide de données 1990-2023 du registre norvégien des cancers, cette étude analyse l'évolution, en fonction du sexe, de l'incidence des cancers attribuables au papillomavirus humain puis réalise une projection de l'incidence du carcinome épidermoïde du col utérin jusqu'en 2038
Understanding the total burden of HPV-related cancers is crucial for improving prevention strategies. While organized cervical cancer (CC) screening has been implemented for many years, other HPV-related cancers lacked screening programs. Primary prevention through HPV vaccination has been implemented through national programs, initially for girls and later for boys. To analyze changes in HPV-attributable cancer incidence for both men and women, we used data from the Cancer Registry of Norway (CRN).Observational population-based study using high-quality data from the CRN. The proportion of cancers at each site attributed to HPV was calculated based on existing literature.We estimated HPV cancer incidence rates from 1990 to 2023 and forecasted incidences until 2038 for cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC), along with other HPV-related SCCs.Among men, HPV-attributable cancer incidence was rising, with male oropharyngeal SCC showing the fastest increase (APC 4.5, p<0.01). Overall, the incidence of HPV-attributable cancers not prevented by screening steadily increased (APC 2.8, p<0.01), surpassing CC incidence and projected to continue rising until 2038. In women, CC remains the most common HPV cancer. However, after an increasing trend since 2004, cervical SCC incidence rates decreased 6% annually from 2018 to 2023 (95% CI:-9.9 to -1.9, p<0.01).The burden of HPV cancers beyond CC is increasing in Norway, while CC incidence is declining. Addressing the rising total burden of HPV-attributable cancers require additional preventive measures.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases , article en libre accès, 2025